Indian stock markets outlook for October 23, 2013

For Tuesday, October 22, 2013, the trend deciding point worked out at 6153 mark. Again, the weekly trend deciding point was also pegged at 6152 mark. Hence any fall in Nifty towards 6152-6153 mark was to offer a buying opportunity. However sustenance of this point needed to be ensured before creating a buying position. A strict stop loss of thirty points was a must for any buy. If for any reason, this level was breached, then the next support was expected to emerge at 6080 mark. But going by the trend for Tuesday, it seemed difficult for Nifty to touch 6080 on Tuesday. Again, the intermediate support also existed at 6202, in case if there is not much selling pressure. On the upside, the first weekly resistance of 6246 could have been easily crossed, as it was very near to the close of Monday at 6236 mark and a slightly strong buying could have helped it to be crossed. If this was crossed due to demand pressure, then the next resistance was expected to emerge around 6316 mark, the second weekly resistance. 

And on Tuesday, Nifty opened slightly negative and soon went up to touch the high of 6236 mark and thus could not cross the first weekly resistance of 6246 mark. Fresh selling pressure here pushed Nifty down to touch the low of 6197.30. This point was close to the intermediate support of 6202 mark. After moving sideways for the major part, it was towards the end of the session that some buying pushed Nifty upward to close at 6227.

For Wednesday, October 23, 2013, the trend deciding point emerges at 6163 mark. While the weekly trend deciding point is at 6152. Thus, any fall in Nifty towards 6163-6152 mark is to offer a buying opportunity. However sustenance of this point is needed to be ensured before creating a buying position. A strict stop loss of thirty points is a must for any buy. If by any chance there is not much selling pressure, then the intermediate level of 6205-6210 itself will offer a support. The direction of the market will depend on the September Job data to be released today in US. On the upside, the level of 6246 will offer a resistance. If this is crossed, then the second weekly resistance of 6316 will become the target.

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY NEWS FOR OCTOBER 10, 2013

 RIL may retain $10-bn oil fields; Ministry to seek nod

 Govt rejects IMF projections on economic growth

 Rs2,060cr set as spectrum fee for cancelled licences

 President Obama has power to avoid default

 HDFC MF emerges as most profitable fund house

 RBI explores SMS-based mobile banking on all types of

handsets

 Tata Steel may sell assets worth $1.2 bn

 Priority for NBFCs in bank licences: Chakrabarty

 Sebi allows SME listing without IPO

 Credit card loans are fine if done transparently: RBI

 Investors cheer Sept trade data, Sensex regains 20k

 Tourism industry welcomes easing of visa norms

 Yellen set to become US Fed chairman, markets relieved

 Bengal Govt opens IOC’s bid for Haldia Petro

 Cabinet to consider additional penalty on Reliance Ind

 Mutual funds’ exposure to bank stocks hits 4-year low of Rs

22,744 cr

 Stockists’ buying, festival demand heat up edible oils

 Govt mulls customs duty hike on broadband equipment

 LPG price may go up by Rs 3.50 a cylinder

 Mauritius may tighten rules for firms seeking India tax treaty

benefits

 SBI cuts lending rate on car loans to 10.55%

 FDA plans surprise inspections at Indian drug units

 No plan to relax 30% local sourcing norm for retailers: DIPP

 Commodity prices wrong as often as 27% of time for traders

 Jet-Etihad deal: Supreme Court admits PIL, issues notices

 Bharti Walmart retail JV in India terminated

 Trade deficit in India falls to 30-month low

 Discoms get cold feet over tariff hike proposal for Mundra

UMPP

 Exports rise 11.15% in September

 India, emerging economies may not return to 8% growth: IMF

 Indian IT outsourcers want a bigger byte out of Europe

 Yet to hear from govt on HZL, Balco stake sale: Vedanta

 US shutdown not to hit India's exports: Rao

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Commodity market evening round up for October 9, 2013

Precious metals on COMEX closed almost flat after trading between gains and losses as investors assessed the deadlock between US lawmakers over the debt limit and government shutdown and the implication for monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve. Actively traded Gold contract settled flat at 1324.60 with aluminium decline of 50 cents after having tested a high of 1330.80 and low of 1315.40 while front month Silver futures closed at 22.44, up 0.06points or 0.25% an ounce.

Base metals closed higher on the London Metal Exchange, except Nickel and Copper which were settled in red.3-month Lead was top performing metal among the group, jumped around 1.5% or 30.25 points to 2092.75 after having tested a high of 2108.00, followed by Aluminum and Zinc which were rose half a percent each to 1862.50 and 1887.50 respectively. Copper tested a high of 7295.00 before settling at 7233.50, down 5 points per metric ton.

WTI Crude Oil gained on Tuesday as US lawmakers took steps toward raising the government's debt limit, reducing the likelihood of a default that slows economic growth and weaker the fuel demand. Light Sweet Crude Oil futures rose around half a percent or 0.46 points to 103.49 after having tested a high of 104.08 per barrel. EIA is set to be released their Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report tonight at 8.00PM with a market forecast of 0.9 Mbd against the previous week of 5.5 Mbd while US Private agency API showed gain in stockpiles by 2.8 mbd. Natural Gas futures continued its rally for the straight two days due to warmer weather forecast which spur the demand for this energy complex. Front month Natural Gas futures settled almost three weeks high at 3.72, up 2.40% or 0.09 points.

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Today's stock market outlook: Nifty future levels for October 9, 2013

For Tuesday, October 8, 2013, the trend deciding point worked out at 5865 mark. Again, the weekly trend deciding point was pegged at 5894 mark. However, this was breached on Monday, very easily. Hence any fall in Nifty was to finally get supported at 5865 mark. A buying opportunity was to be exploited here, if Nifty sustained this support area of course, with a stop loss of forty points. For any reason if 5865-5850 was breached or Nifty closed below 5894 mark, then the immediate trend was expected to turn to negative. On the upside, intermediate resistance existed at 5965 mark. Then the subsequent resistance was expected to arise at 6004 level. If this is also crossed, then the first weekly resistance of 6034 was to stand in the way of any upside move. And on Tuesday, Nifty opened with a gap up at 6000 and within the first couple of hours touched the high of 6021 mark. This was close to the envisaged resistance level of 6034 mark as mentioned above. From here, Nifty started drifting down and made a low of 5944.25 mark. The low was exactly at the close of Monday. Nifty finally settled the day after moving in a range, at 5954.10.

For Wednesday, October 9, 2013, the trend deciding point emerges at 5925 mark. Since, it is very near to the current close of 5954.10, there are chances that this level can be breached on a slight selling pressure. The next support stands at 5894 mark, the weekly trend deciding point. If for any reason, if this also stands violated, then the next support is expected to emerge around 5850 mark. In spite of being repetitive, we would like to mention that if nifty breaches this 5850 mark or closes below 5894 mark, then the immediate trend is expected to turn to negative. On the upside, Nifty is expected to face resistance at 6034 mark with an intermediate resistance at 5985 mark.

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Commodities market evening update for October 7, 2013

Precious Metals continued to remain in range as the US government shutdown continued forthe second consecutive week as the president and the senate struggle to arriveat a decision; gold is trading at 1313.30 an ounce, up 3.30 having traded in arange of barely ten points today and silver is registering a 3 cent gain to trade at 21.785 an ounce at present. A completely different picture in the domestic markets saw bullions appreciate due to the rupee, gold is up 237points to trade at 29326.0 per ten grams and silver is up 414 points to tradeat 48643.0 per kilogram. The rupee broke a four day gaining streak to closeweaker today at 62.18, down 25 paise or 0.40% against the dollar. Gold is trading in a tight range of 1305.0-1320.0, expect trending moves once prices break above or below this range. Silver is trading in between 21.30-22.10. Ourview on precious metals is neutral.


Base Metals are also having a quiet trading session today; aluminum being the only exception, metals traded on LME are down today lead by Nickel at 13820.0,-129.0, -0.92%, followed by Copper at 7201.25, -50.25, -0.69%. On MCX, basemetals futures are trading in green due to the weaker rupee with only copper and nickel being an exception. Copper is trading at 4530, -1.20, -0.265 andNickel is down 1.40 or 0.165 to trade at 858.10. Over the past week and today, copper has found a good support near 7150.0 below which prices should fall to 7100.0 and possibly lower. A resistance zone is expected to come into play near 7300.0-7330.0 if prices move upwards. Our view is negative on copper and basemetals as a whole for intraday.



Crude Oil is down 1.16 or 1.12% to 102.68 per barrel whereas Natural Gas is up 0.91%to trade at 3.538 per mmbtu. In the domestic market, oil is down 15 points to6371.0 and natural gas is higher by 4 points or 1.855 to trade at 220.10 per mmbtu. Crude Oil may fall further in intraday today as it is trading below a support at 102.80 which in turn is acting a resistance this time around a good short selling opportunity is seen once prices break below 102.50 today. Natural Gas is also likely to fall further in the evening session.

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Stock pick of the day October 1, 2013

Stock pick of the day October 1, 2013

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Indian stock markets index levels for September 25, 2013

Tuesday, Sept 24th 2013, Nifty future opened on a negative note and took support at 5875 (day's low) and rebounded to rise upto 5962 level. Nifty future hit the resistance zone (5950-5965) and subsequently drifted down to settle at 5917.

For Wednesday, Sept 25th 2013, the trend deciding point emerges around 5870-5875 zone(which is also close to today's low), hence this zone will act as good support level and if the trend deciding zone is breached Nifty future likely to face further selling pressure which may take Nifty down to 5840 and 5820 levels. Based on trend deciding zone two nifty strategies can be taken, first to buy nifty future around 5900 with stop placed at 5870 and second, to sell nifty future below 5870 with stop above 5900. In both cases stop is of 30 points and profit around 40- 50 points. If Nifty future bounces from 5900 it’s likely to move upto 5960 level, where again it will face resistance (5960-5970) is a key supply zone or resistance zone.

If Nifty future manages to surpass the resistance zone, it’s likely to move upto 6025 and then to 6052 level.


Index Range (September Future)

Nifty: 5917
Range: 5815-6055
Resistance: 6049-6006-5962
Support: 5875-5831-5787

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