Indian stock markets outlook for October 23, 2013

For Tuesday, October 22, 2013, the trend deciding point worked out at 6153 mark. Again, the weekly trend deciding point was also pegged at 6152 mark. Hence any fall in Nifty towards 6152-6153 mark was to offer a buying opportunity. However sustenance of this point needed to be ensured before creating a buying position. A strict stop loss of thirty points was a must for any buy. If for any reason, this level was breached, then the next support was expected to emerge at 6080 mark. But going by the trend for Tuesday, it seemed difficult for Nifty to touch 6080 on Tuesday. Again, the intermediate support also existed at 6202, in case if there is not much selling pressure. On the upside, the first weekly resistance of 6246 could have been easily crossed, as it was very near to the close of Monday at 6236 mark and a slightly strong buying could have helped it to be crossed. If this was crossed due to demand pressure, then the next resistance was expected to emerge around 6316 mark, the second weekly resistance. 

And on Tuesday, Nifty opened slightly negative and soon went up to touch the high of 6236 mark and thus could not cross the first weekly resistance of 6246 mark. Fresh selling pressure here pushed Nifty down to touch the low of 6197.30. This point was close to the intermediate support of 6202 mark. After moving sideways for the major part, it was towards the end of the session that some buying pushed Nifty upward to close at 6227.

For Wednesday, October 23, 2013, the trend deciding point emerges at 6163 mark. While the weekly trend deciding point is at 6152. Thus, any fall in Nifty towards 6163-6152 mark is to offer a buying opportunity. However sustenance of this point is needed to be ensured before creating a buying position. A strict stop loss of thirty points is a must for any buy. If by any chance there is not much selling pressure, then the intermediate level of 6205-6210 itself will offer a support. The direction of the market will depend on the September Job data to be released today in US. On the upside, the level of 6246 will offer a resistance. If this is crossed, then the second weekly resistance of 6316 will become the target.

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Important Stock News to be watched for October 21, 2013

 US economy bruised by fiscal fight: Treasury Secretary
 Ultratech Q2 net profit dips 52 per cent to Rs 264 crore
 Subsidies for entrepreneurs in rural, urban areas: Minister
 Roadshow for Coal India stake sale likely from Monday
 India Inc strikes 113 PE deals for $2.1 billion in July-September
quarter
 Bajaj Auto 6th among top 10 bike sellers in Africa

 Capacity underutilisation to add auto cos' woes
 Sebi to frame new guidelines for research analysts
 Neyveli shortlists 18 proposals for overseas coal assets
 RIL sparkles as 9 blue-chips add Rs 59,720 cr in m-cap
 Relief for RCom, Tata Tele, as DoT says won't scrap licences
 US coal miner offers ICVL stake in three operating mines
 LIC cuts stake in Infy to 4.95%; sells Rs 3,400cr shares

 Banks well capitalised to absorb losses due to project delays:
Rajan
 Regulators widen global probe into $5-trillion a day forex
market
 PMO defends coal block allotment to Hindalco
 AP grants free ‘right of way’ for optical fibre network project
 Unitech inks Rs 1,000 cr office leasing deal with Accenture

 IT spend for banking and securities firms to grow 9.8%: Gartner
 JPMorgan in $13 billion tentative deal with FHFA
 Petronet LNG hit by low utilization levels
 Indirect tax collections up 5.1% in Apr-Sep
 Montek says current account deficit to fall below 3.8% this
fiscal

 Tata Consultancy Services making 'serious investments' in big
data, cloud, mobility
 Five years post-Lehman, top banks still face trust deficit: Survey
 PFRDA makes changes in investment guidelines for pension
fund

 Earnings, foreign fund movement to drive stock markets
 Chanda Kochhar moves up on women power list: Fortune
 17 million people jobless for more than a year, says OECD
 DCB Bank not to seek extension to dilute promoter holding
 CBI likely to file status report in coal scam on Oct 22
 Draft rules on NFRA likely this week

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Business & Economy News for October 15, 2013

· Reliance net up a tad at 1.5%

· TCS shares at all-time high ahead of Q2 results

· FinMin wants to raise revenue through 3G auctions to tame

CAD

· Cairn wants to squeeze the last drop out of Barmer

· Bajaj Corp Q2 net down 6.22% at Rs 36.01 cr

· RIL first Indian firm to clock Rs 1-lakh-cr sales in a quarter

· In a first for a PSU, IOC buys 1 mn barrels of crude from Sterling

Oil's Nigerian fields

· ONGC's foreign arm to acquire 12% stake in Brazil block

· Tech Mahindra goes for growth by acquisition

· Reliance Retail sales up 31% in Q2

· IndusInd Bank net rises 32% on high interest, fee incomes

· India inflation rises to 7-month high

· Fortis to sell Quality Healthcare to Bupa for $355 mn

· Weak earnings outlook for capital goods companies

· NTPC plans to set up new mining unit for fuel security

· Reliance Infra to enter Nifty Midcap 50

· Nomura Singapore buys 11.74 lakh shares of Karnataka Bank

· CPI inflation quickens to 9.84% in September: Government

Data

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Business and Economy News for October 14, 2013

· Policy soon to facilitate entry of foreign banks: Rajan

· IMF chief warns against drastic US spending cuts

· Deutsche Bank pegs farm output at around 8%

· NSEL fiasco: FMC to order special audit of MCX

· Stalled PPP infrastructure projects likely to get a renegotiation

clause

· US headed toward 'dangerous moment': World Bank

· Tata Tele to seek promoter funding to bid for spectrum

· RIL thrashes expert report on KG-D6 output fall

· Results, inflation, US debt cap to set market trend

· Shutdown talks go to Senate as debt deadline nears

· UK-based Clarks Footwear to add 15 more stores

· Apollo Hospitals to invest Rs 2,000cr in 3 years, add 2,800 beds

· Rs 15K cr alumina project to come up near Mundra: Minister

· Brazil factors begin driving up global sugar prices

· Banks’ earnings likely to moderate in Q2, say analysts

· Govt ready to take difficult decisions to check deficit: FM

· A bad certificate for Wockhardt

· Eight of top 10 cos add Rs 57,934 cr in m-cap

· American firm Liberty to help OVL exploit Russian shale

reserves

· Obama, Pelosi say ‘clean’ bills needed for US debt ceiling,

restart

· Regulators oppose govt move on free foreign listing

· Apollo-Cooper deal price may increase over USW union trouble

· M&M’s Spanish venture eyes acquisitions in new regions

· No immediate plans to launch marketplace for Indian public:

Alibaba

· Bharti Airtel raises ISD rates up to 80 pct, Idea Cellular by 25 pct

· Wipro, HCL in race for Rs 1,500 cr India Posts devices project

· Idea Cellular gets unified licence for seven circles

· Indian healthcare IT market may zoom to USD 1,454 mn in

2018

· Govt, RBI on right track to address any Fed tapering

· Results, inflation, US debt cap to set stock market trend

· MFs' exposure to software stocks dips to Rs 20,284 cr

· FIIs pull out $1.2b from debt market in two weeks

· MFIs come back with transparent pricing, better data capturing

· Rubber prices to fall more on weak global demand

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Economic News for October 14, 2013

The Indian rupee strengthened for a second straight session on Friday, helped by good dollar sales by corporates and as emerging currencies rose as risk sentiment improved on growing hopes for a U.S. debt deal in Washington.

Traders are hoping for more clarity on the U.S. debt ceiling resolution. On Friday, the dollar traded near a two-week peak versus the yen, while growth-linked currencies such as the Indonesian rupiah outperformed.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Thursday the country is not nearly as troubled as investors fear and stressed that the government has plenty of money to meet its obligations.

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Important news for today: October 11, 2013

· Shutdown: Republicans unveil plan to avert US default
· After Walmart, govt hopes Tesco to open shop in India
· Reliance Industries to take up oil block in Venezuela
· RBI allows lenders to borrow from global bodies
· US levies $118,300 in fines for Texas fertilizer blast: senator
· Finnish trade minister to lead biz delegation to India

·Venezuelan oil major inks pact with RIL, OVL
· Apollo backs out after Cooper's profit forecast falls
· World stocks, dollar rally on hopes of US debt deal
· Sebi mulls raising MFs' minimum capital base to Rs 25 cr
· RBI sold $ 2.46 bn in spot market in August
· Planning Commission slams Rajan report

·iGate Q3 net up 12.7%; to invest $120 m in infrastructure
· SEBI official to assist Commodity Derivative Section in FinMin
· Telecom security testing deadline extended to July
· Kotak Bank cuts interest rates on home, car loans
· Hit by Indian slowdown, South Asian nations must work on
reforms: World Bank
· IL&FS Engineering gets board approval for rights issue

·Rupee rises to 61.36 as govt seeks more dollar inflows
· Indian Oil Corp’s bid for Haldia Petrochemicals stake accepted
· Telecom ministry node for new licence to Reliance Jio
· Sebi to allow REITs in India
· Glenmark sues six US drug makers
· RBI grants infrastructure NBFC status to IIFCL

·Lotus Refineries demand probe into NSEL's settlement
procedure
· Hinduja Automotive buys 2.6 crore shares of Ashok Leyland
· Ficci's India economic outlook lowers growth to 5 pct
· International Finance Corporation launches USD 1 billion bond
programme for India

·Detailed guidelines on disclosures by listed firms soon: Sebi
· Morgan Stanley bearish on gold, sees more fall in 2014
· Israel wants to include talent sharing in FTA with India
· SAT sets aside Sebi order against Earnest Healthcare
· Finmin mulls additional fund infusion of Rs 4-5K cr in banks
· JSW Steel Q2 steel production up 5.67% at 2.98 MT

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Commodities market evening update for October 7, 2013

Precious Metals continued to remain in range as the US government shutdown continued forthe second consecutive week as the president and the senate struggle to arriveat a decision; gold is trading at 1313.30 an ounce, up 3.30 having traded in arange of barely ten points today and silver is registering a 3 cent gain to trade at 21.785 an ounce at present. A completely different picture in the domestic markets saw bullions appreciate due to the rupee, gold is up 237points to trade at 29326.0 per ten grams and silver is up 414 points to tradeat 48643.0 per kilogram. The rupee broke a four day gaining streak to closeweaker today at 62.18, down 25 paise or 0.40% against the dollar. Gold is trading in a tight range of 1305.0-1320.0, expect trending moves once prices break above or below this range. Silver is trading in between 21.30-22.10. Ourview on precious metals is neutral.


Base Metals are also having a quiet trading session today; aluminum being the only exception, metals traded on LME are down today lead by Nickel at 13820.0,-129.0, -0.92%, followed by Copper at 7201.25, -50.25, -0.69%. On MCX, basemetals futures are trading in green due to the weaker rupee with only copper and nickel being an exception. Copper is trading at 4530, -1.20, -0.265 andNickel is down 1.40 or 0.165 to trade at 858.10. Over the past week and today, copper has found a good support near 7150.0 below which prices should fall to 7100.0 and possibly lower. A resistance zone is expected to come into play near 7300.0-7330.0 if prices move upwards. Our view is negative on copper and basemetals as a whole for intraday.



Crude Oil is down 1.16 or 1.12% to 102.68 per barrel whereas Natural Gas is up 0.91%to trade at 3.538 per mmbtu. In the domestic market, oil is down 15 points to6371.0 and natural gas is higher by 4 points or 1.855 to trade at 220.10 per mmbtu. Crude Oil may fall further in intraday today as it is trading below a support at 102.80 which in turn is acting a resistance this time around a good short selling opportunity is seen once prices break below 102.50 today. Natural Gas is also likely to fall further in the evening session.

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Commodity market round up for October 4, 2013

Precious Metals continue to remain in range for the second day. Gold is trading at1317.10 an ounce, unchanged from previous close and Silver is losing 7 cents totrade at 21.71 an ounce. Prices in the domestic market are down nearly apercent with Gold at 29240.0, down 232.0 or 0.79% and Silver at 48179.0, down474.0 or 0.96%. The rupee strengthened against the dollar for the fourthconsecutive day to close at 61.44, up 30 paise or 0.49%; October futures closedat 61.82, up 31 paise. Gold is trading below a good intraday resistance at1320.0 above which we expect prices to move higher to 1340.0-1350.0 levelstoday. On the downside, any declines should find support at 1300.0 and furtherlower at 1280.0 in intraday. Silver has once again settled into the previousrange of 22.25-21.30. The intraday bias is neutral on precious metals.


BaseMetals are also having a quiet session today; three month copper futures aredown 11.75 to 7183.0 per ton. With the exception of Nickel which is up 0.60% at13636.0 per ton, the rest of the metals are also trading marginally in red. OnMCX, except nickel, base metals are losing nearly a percent each due to therupee � copper is down 4.45 or 0.975 at 450.0 and nickel is down 2 points totrade at 842.0 at the time of writing this. Copper is likely to consolidatefurther in intraday with support coming into play at 7150.0 and resistance at7210.0. A breakdown below 7150.0 should provide good short sellingopportunities in intraday; our bias is negative on base metals today.


Oil and Gas pricesare higher today; crude oil is trading at 103.73 per barrel, up 42 cents or0.41% and natural gas is slightly higher at 3.503 per mmbtu, up 0.11%. Pricesare lower in the domestic market crude is down 50 points or 0.76% at 6404.0and natural gas is down 1.235 to trade at 217.10 now. Crude Oil seems to be ina recovery mode and we expect prices to remain positive today and moving intonext week; having build a strong support zone near 101.0-103.0 prices look setto test 106.0-107.0 in the coming days. We will be looking for buyingopportunities above 104.0 today.

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Indian stock market outlook for September 26, 2013: Index Range (September Future), Bank Nifty and Sensex

For Thursday, Sept 26th 2013, the trend deciding point stands at 5815/5814, hence any fall towards this level likely to find support. If the supply/selling pressure is strong enough to breach this level, Nifty future will attract further selling and in that case its likely to slide down to 5776 and further to 5710 level. On the upside first hourly resistance is placed around 5908 level, if Nifty future manages to sustain this hourly resistance its likely to move further to 5940 to 5955 level. Tomorrow is F&O expiry, hence volatility and sharp reversal is not ruled out.

Based on the Nifty view, trading strategies:
1. Buy above hourly resistance of 5910 with stop at 5875, target of 5940-5950.
2. Sell around 5950 with stop at 5970, target 5910/5900

Index Range (September Future)
Nifty: 5888.90
Resistance: 6032-5978-5929
Support: 5826-5772-5724

Bank Nifty: 10081.70
Resistance: 10702-10511-10312
Support: 9923-9732-9533

Sensex: 19856.24
Resistance: 20341-20160-20021
Support: 19702-19520-19382

Disclaimer: Trading involves risk and please trade in your own risk.

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